Thursday Jan 19, 2012
One of my students, in particular, wanted to know what my 'target' was for the stock rally. Rather than give a price target for the SPX, the better idea is to revisit where the market topped last internally.
Bullish Percent
The BP closed at 68.80 today. The previous high was just over 90, at that point the majority of the price rally will have ended. The reason is that only the last few laggards will be playing catch up. The sand, money, will have pretty well filled up the stock end of the hourglass. My conclusion is that we have about 20 points of hte BP indicator to go before worrying about a top.
Bullish Percent versus TLT
Here perhaps readers can see my insistence that TLT has to drop. Another inidcator of a top is when TLT and the BP indicator are opposite of one another. Yet TLT in black is still stubbornly high.
Dow Utilities
While the stock indices are making new highs, the Utilities, which have been the strong performer this past year, are not. Money is now flowing from thedividend paying stocks which Wall Street has recommended to commodity plays.
RIG
Gee only a few days ago I specualted that it would take a while for my call on RIG to show results, I was right on the call and wrong on the time frame-WHOOSH!
Here is the sixty minute chart, we may get a pullback after the initial rocket launch.
With natural gas falling like a rock what do you think of the natural gas trusts like HGT or SJT?
When would you consider buying if at all?
Posted by: R. Takacs | January 19, 2012 at 10:18 PM