Monday January 23, 2012
I notice there are a number of bears emergig from their Dens.
Ed Carlson at Seattle Technical Advisors is calling for a top potentially today or by early March.
Art Hill at stock charts is suggesting the rally has eneded or will at 1345.
Tom DeMark called for a top last week at a forth coming 1345.
Felix Zulaf in the Barrons Roundtable said he would cover his shorts if the market exceeds 1370.
Now none of those numbers are far form the close today at 1316, in fact we could hit 1345 in a day or two.
So was that it, Is that all there is?
Probaby not. It would make a lot more sense for the market to stumble a bit and then take out 1345 and then 1370.
That would prove the conventional wisdom, this rally has no legs, wrong. And that would encourage more to buy in, after all these experts were wrong. Consider that the Barrons Roundtable with Zulaf is read round the world. It just makes no sense that all these folks are right while
most are still safely hidden in T bonds and the Dollar.
Bonds Breaking Down
Here is today's update on the TLT chart we showed this weekend. TLT appears to be takin out its neckline. At bottom we put the TBT a 2x short ETF of the bond market which is climbing.
The point of no return looks to be a close uner 115. The point is that this should show that money is moving more urgently from bonds to stocks.
The Dollar
For some reason my annotation tool in stockcharts is not working but if you draw a line from the lower left to the upper right the uptrend appears to be breaking down. This coupled with the apparent breakdown in TLT at top are the two things we have been waiting for to confirm a move from safe harbors of bonds and the buck to stocks. It was more clear in some individual stocks than in the overall market today. Okay this is but one more day but things do seem to be lining up.
Just checking our picks of
GM RIG GDXJ CEF BID WRI WRE, I have mentioned all of these specifically recommending the first four, all had a nice day today. WYNN is also climbing reflecting positive sentiment.
Our thinking is that higher highs still lie ahead. Selling among insiders is still not significant.
Oh we have a winner, in the optimism department at CRM whose P/E is 7,650 to one, not a misprint....do you suppose that will be a short opportunity when this market tops out?
Thanks for reading TMP.
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